xG and xGI

xG in FPL: over- and underperformers

Expected goals tell you what should have happened. The Butler is more interested in the players who spent a whole season disagreeing.

The largest single-season overperformance against expected goal involvement in Fantasy Premier League is 16.24 goals and assists above xGI, by Watkins in 2023/24, who returned 37 against an xGI of 20.76. The largest underperformance is 6.65 below xGI, by Yeremy in 2025/26. FPL publishes expected statistics from 2022/23 onwards, and the figures count only players with at least 900 minutes in the season.

Biggest overperformance

16.24

Watkins, 2023/24

Biggest underperformance

6.65

Yeremy, 2025/26

Latest season's top overperformer

9.93

B.Fernandes, 2025/26

Seasons with xG data

FPL publishes expected stats from 2022/23

Updated: 3 September 2026Seasons: 2022/23 to 2025/26

How to read the difference

Expected goal involvement, xGI, adds a player's expected goals to his expected assists: the return his chances and his key passes were worth, before anyone actually finished them. The difference published here is his real goals plus assists minus that xGI, so it is measured in goals and assists, not in Fantasy Premier League points.

A positive difference is not automatically a warning. Penalty takers, set-piece specialists and genuinely elite finishers sit above their xGI year after year. It becomes a warning when a player with an ordinary shot profile is a long way above it, because that is the gap most likely to close.

Only players with at least 900 minutes in the season are counted, so a substitute with two lucky goals cannot top the list.
FPL has published expected statistics since 2022/23, which is why the series starts there.
The difference is in goals and assists. Converting it to points depends on the player's position, so the page deliberately does not.

The biggest overperformers, season by season

These are the players who finished a season well ahead of what their chances were worth. Watkins holds the record for the period, returning 37 goals and assists in 2023/24 against an xGI of 20.76. In 2025/26 the leader was B.Fernandes, on 33 against an xGI of 23.07.

Players furthest above their expected goal involvement, 2025/26
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Above xGI
1	B.Fernandes	9	24	33	23.07	9.93
2	Bowen	9	13	22	12.43	9.57
3	Semenyo	17	6	23	14.21	8.79
4	Wilson	10	9	19	10.65	8.35
5	João Pedro	15	9	24	16.87	7.13
6	Rogers	10	8	18	11.16	6.84
7	Haaland	27	8	35	28.17	6.83
8	Matheus N.	1	8	9	2.57	6.43
9	Gravenberch	5	5	10	4.15	5.85
10	Bruno G.	9	7	16	10.55	5.45
11	Dewsbury-Hall	8	7	15	9.69	5.31
12	Gibbs-White	15	4	19	13.72	5.28
13	Richarlison	11	4	15	10.10	4.90
14	Palhinha	5	3	8	3.37	4.63
15	Okafor	8	3	11	6.57	4.43

Players furthest above their expected goal involvement, 2024/25
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Above xGI
1	Salah	29	18	47	33.69	13.31
2	J.Murphy	8	13	21	12.03	8.97
3	Bowen	13	11	24	15.07	8.93
4	Wood	20	3	23	15.01	7.99
5	Cunha	15	7	22	14.02	7.98
6	Amad	8	8	16	8.69	7.31
7	Rogers	8	11	19	11.73	7.27
8	Mbeumo	20	9	29	21.75	7.25
9	Elanga	6	11	17	9.93	7.07
10	Gibbs-White	7	11	18	10.99	7.01
11	Strand Larsen	14	4	18	11.14	6.86
12	Watkins	16	8	24	17.19	6.81
13	McNeil	4	8	12	5.53	6.47
14	Maddison	9	8	17	11.46	5.54
15	Trossard	8	8	16	10.86	5.14

Players furthest above their expected goal involvement, 2023/24
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Above xGI
1	Watkins	19	18	37	20.76	16.24
2	Gordon	11	16	27	15.42	11.58
3	Mateta	16	7	23	12.14	10.86
4	Jota	10	7	17	6.99	10.01
5	Foden	19	8	27	17.12	9.88
6	Palmer	22	13	35	25.52	9.48
7	Kudus	8	9	17	8.54	8.46
8	Rodrigo	8	10	18	10.14	7.86
9	Son	17	10	27	19.36	7.64
10	Bailey	10	11	21	13.46	7.54
11	Rice	7	9	16	8.62	7.38
12	Havertz	13	10	23	16.23	6.77
13	Cunha	12	7	19	12.46	6.54
14	Neto	2	11	13	6.86	6.14
15	Olise	10	6	16	10.28	5.72

Players furthest above their expected goal involvement, 2022/23
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Above xGI
1	Kane	30	9	39	24.96	14.04
2	Haaland	36	9	45	31.65	13.35
3	Trossard	8	13	21	12.39	8.61
4	Saka	14	12	26	17.46	8.54
5	Martinelli	15	9	24	16.13	7.87
6	Foden	11	7	18	10.48	7.52
7	Firmino	11	4	15	7.64	7.36
8	Douglas Luiz	6	7	13	5.71	7.29
9	Xhaka	7	8	15	8.54	6.46
10	Mahrez	5	12	17	10.62	6.38
11	J.Ramsey	6	8	14	7.96	6.04
12	De Bruyne	7	18	25	19.03	5.97
13	Rashford	17	7	24	18.13	5.87
14	Rodrigo	13	2	15	9.28	5.72
15	Willian	5	7	12	6.45	5.55

The biggest underperformers, season by season

And these are the players whose chances never turned into returns. Yeremy is the extreme of the period, returning 4 in 2025/26 against an xGI of 10.65. In 2025/26 it was Yeremy, on 4 against an xGI of 10.65.

This is the more useful half of the page for a transfer. A player a long way below his xGI is getting into the right positions, which is the part that is hard to fix, and the finishing is the part that usually corrects itself.

Players furthest below their expected goal involvement, 2025/26
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Below xGI
1	Yeremy	2	2	4	10.65	6.65
2	Brooks	1	3	4	9.21	5.21
3	Gudmundsson	0	0	0	3.98	3.98
4	Mateta	12	0	12	15.74	3.74
5	Enzo	10	5	15	18.52	3.52
6	Jensen	3	2	5	8.27	3.27
7	Amad	2	5	7	10.20	3.20
8	Mosquera	0	0	0	3.13	3.13
9	J.Arias	1	0	1	4.00	3.00
10	Richards	1	0	1	3.98	2.98
11	Mbeumo	11	3	14	16.97	2.97
12	Wirtz	5	4	9	11.96	2.96
13	Kamada	0	2	2	4.88	2.88
14	Struijk	0	1	1	3.82	2.82
15	Mitoma	3	1	4	6.78	2.78

Players furthest below their expected goal involvement, 2024/25
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Below xGI
1	Archer	2	0	2	6.43	4.43
2	Robertson	0	1	1	5.39	4.39
3	Paquetá	4	1	5	8.72	3.72
4	Lindstrøm	0	1	1	4.11	3.11
5	Akanji	0	0	0	2.87	2.87
6	Casemiro	1	0	1	3.79	2.79
7	Rúben	0	0	0	2.74	2.74
8	Davis	1	2	3	5.72	2.72
9	Kamada	0	0	0	2.67	2.67
10	Harrison	1	3	4	6.66	2.66
11	Sarr	8	7	15	17.64	2.64
12	Mainoo	0	0	0	2.62	2.62
13	Gvardiol	5	0	5	7.52	2.52
14	Gusto	0	1	1	3.35	2.35
15	Dominguez	0	1	1	3.16	2.16

Players furthest below their expected goal involvement, 2023/24
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Below xGI
1	João Pedro	9	3	12	16.65	4.65
2	Calvert-Lewin	7	3	10	14.43	4.43
3	Beto	3	0	3	6.76	3.76
4	Enzo	3	3	6	9.50	3.50
5	Garner	1	2	3	6.37	3.37
6	Rúben	0	0	0	3.31	3.31
7	Antony	1	1	2	5.21	3.21
8	Tarkowski	1	1	2	5.21	3.21
9	Lewis-Potter	3	2	5	8.07	3.07
10	Nørgaard	2	1	3	6.05	3.05
11	Almirón	3	1	4	6.96	2.96
12	Cash	2	2	4	6.88	2.88
13	Christie	0	5	5	7.86	2.86
14	Bissouma	0	0	0	2.85	2.85
15	Willian	4	3	7	9.77	2.77

Players furthest below their expected goal involvement, 2022/23
#	Player	Goals	Assists	Goals and assists	xGI	Below xGI
1	Havertz	7	1	8	14.33	6.33
2	Gray	4	1	5	9.99	4.99
3	Mac Allister	10	2	12	16.32	4.32
4	Maupay	1	0	1	5.15	4.15
5	Damsgaard	0	0	0	3.63	3.63
6	Calvert-Lewin	2	1	3	6.62	3.62
7	Elliott	1	2	3	6.43	3.43
8	Nketiah	4	2	6	9.15	3.15
9	Antony	4	2	6	9.07	3.07
10	Elyounoussi	1	1	2	5.05	3.05
11	B.Fernandes	8	9	17	20.03	3.03
12	Trippier	1	9	10	12.88	2.88
13	Tarkowski	1	1	2	4.86	2.86
14	Costa	1	0	1	3.82	2.82
15	Gabriel	3	0	3	5.70	2.70

Questions and answers

What is xGI in FPL?

Expected goal involvement is a player's expected goals plus his expected assists: what his chances and his key passes were worth, whatever actually happened to them. Fantasy Premier League publishes it in the official game data from 2022/23 onwards.

Which FPL player overperformed his xG the most?

Watkins in 2023/24, with 37 goals and assists against an xGI of 20.76, a difference of 16.24. That is the largest single-season gap in the 4 seasons FPL has published expected statistics for.

Does overperforming xG mean a player will decline?

Not on its own. Penalty takers and elite finishers stay above their xGI season after season. The signal is a large gap from a player whose chances are ordinary, and that is the gap most likely to close in the following months.

Is the xGI difference measured in FPL points?

No. It is goals plus assists minus xGI, measured in goals and assists. What it is worth in points depends on the position, since a goal is 4 points for a forward, 5 for a midfielder and 6 for a defender, so the figure is deliberately left in its own units.

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